I just cast my SAG Awards votes, so now I am ready to give my Oscars predictions. Over the last 6 years I had a rather good track record with my predictions, especially Best Picture (6 out of 6 correct). So I will try my best this year.
I have to admit, this year is tough. There are so many good performances and movies and none of them completely stands out (there are no Avatar or Everything Everywhere All At Once). But here we go:
Best Visual Effects:
Will win: Dune: Part Two
Should win: Dune: Part Two
While there were some fantastic works here, I feel that Dune: Part Two is the most comprehensive and epic in scope and storytelling. The VFX with the physical sets and effects are seamless. It was a true cinematic experience and the visual effect did not distract, but enhanced the entire experience.
Best Costume Design:
Will win: Wicked
Should win: Wicked
The amount of details and the pure genius of the Wicked costumes, for me, are simply unmatched.
Best Film Editing:
Will win: Anora
Should win: Conclave
I feel that Anora’s editing is so tight and dynamic that it could win this category. But Conclave definitely has an edge politically. This is the Academy, after all. They love political, but budget productions.
Best Makeup/Hair:
Will win: Nosferatu
Should win: A Different Man
This is another tough category. The makeup is very effective in Nosferatu, but I feel that A Different Man has more emotional gravitas. The Substance is fantastic but borderline comical and fantastical.
Best Cinematography:
Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two could be an upset here, but I feel that the Brutalist is what cinematographers look for as an example of pristine work. Maria is gorgeous to look at, but the staging and movie feels stiff and stifling.
Best Production Design:
Will win: Wicked
Should win: Wicked
Like its costumes, Wicked is a tour de force production, everything is simply so detailed and colorful and fantastic and it transports us into Oz. And the fact that physical sets and effects were heavily used instead of CGI, Wicked is the film to beat this year.
Best Sound:
Will win: Dune: Part Two
Should win: Wicked
This is a toss-up for me. I think the sound design of Dune: Part Two is superb, but Wicked is not too far behind especially since it’s a musical and they recorded live.
Best Original Song:
Will win: Mi Camino
Should win: Mi Camino
I believe this is the area where Emilia Perez will shine.
Best Original Score:
Will win: Wicked
Should win: The Wild Robot
I am betting on Wicked to sweep this category but I am rooting for the emotional score of The Wild Robot
Best Animated Feature:
Will win: The Wild Robot
Should win: The Wild Robot
I do love them all. Flow, in particular, is unique and beautiful. But The Wild Robot has everything: a fantastic story, heart, soul, dynamic voice performances, incredible music, and of course beautifully rendered animation. It’s also an original, not a sequel. Not to mention pedigree. It’s the movie to beat.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will win: Sing Sing
Should win: Sing Sing
It’s based on a true story and written by true inmates. Enough said.
Best Original Screenplay:
Will win: Anora
Should win: The Substance
I am split on this. I think Anora has an edge with the Academy because it’s very relatable; it’s intense; and it’s funny. But The Substance has so many different layers of meanings and it reminds me of the best of David Lynch’s films. Of course, Eisenberg is a dark horse.
Best International Film:
Will win: Emila Perez
Should win: Emilia Perez
Emilia Perez is likely the shoo-in for this category.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will win: Zoe Saldana
Should win: Zoe Saldana
I absolutely adore Ariana Grande, but I think this is a category for Zoe Saldana to lose. She sings, she dances, and she acts her heart out, in Spanish, no less. In fact, she should be considered for Best Actress because her role is so pivotal.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will win: Yura Borisov
Should win: Yura Borisov
Yura’s nuanced, humorous and heart-felt performance is the delight of this season. He steals the show even from the dynamite Madison.
Best Actress:
Will win: Demi Moore
Should win: Cynthia Erivo
I believe the Academy will go with Hollywood royalty Demi Moore, whom many have considered overdue for a major award. She also played against type in a highly satirical, absurdist film about Hollywood itself. It’s hers to lose. Erivo will have her chance next year. Mikey Madison is the dark horse in this race.
Best Actor:
Will win: Adrien Brody
Should win: Colman Domingo
In any normal year I would say Domingo has an edge: his soulful, heartfelt performance as a Sing Sing inmate is mind-blowingly genuine and affecting. But Brody has the more showy role and he is an Academy darling. It’s a toss-up for me.
Best Director:
Will win: Brady Corbet
Should win: Sean Baker
I have no idea. I think Corbet has an edge, but Sean Baker’s direction in Anora is out of the box (he also won DGA and PGA), especially the second act. What I have to say is Dune: Part Two didn’t make the list and it’s a puzzlement.
Best Picture:
Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: Wicked
This is a really tough one. I think the Brutalist has the edge because of the subject matter, especially when it’s about the Jewish immigrant experience after the Holocaust. The Academy loves that. But to me, Wicked blew everyone out of the water with its production and execution. I am voting for Wicked out of sentimentality, but the Brutalist by being a realist.